As of Feb. 11, the number of deaths caused by the novel coronavirus (nCoV) surpassed 1,000 in China, with over 40,000 confirmed cases in the country alone.
According to leading epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, the epidemic in China may reach its peak in middle to late February this year before it plateaus and eases.
Situation in some Chinese provinces improving, new cases decreasing
Zhong, who leads the National Health Commission’s team in investigating the novel coronavirus outbreak, had predicted an earlier peak before this.
In an interview with Reuters, Zhong stated that the situation in some Chinese provinces has already seen improvement, with the number of new cases decreasing.
He also mentioned that this forecast is based on “modelling and developments in recent days, as well as government action.”
Finally, Zhong said that it was necessary to carry out containment measures in Wuhan city, and has advised China to permanently ban wildlife trading.
In addition, he stated that China needs to “improve its disease control mechanisms” and “help set up a global early warning system for contagious diseases.”
Experts in Singapore predict virus could be gone by May 2020
Earlier in February, two experts in Singapore had predicted that the virus could be gone by May 2020 in a piece for CNA.
These experts are Assistant Professor Jyoti Somani and Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah, who are both from the National University of Singapore’s Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine.
Prediction: Coronavirus likely to disappear in May as summer sun heats up China
According to them, viruses cannot thrive if the conditions are not conducive, and the seasonality of influenza and other respiratory viruses in temperate countries has been observed to be cyclical.
This means that when summer kicks in and temperatures in China go up in May, the number of cases may fall sharply in a corresponding manner.
This is just like how SARS disappeared in the northern summer of 2003 when things got warm and has not reappeared significantly since.
Other factors like the rapid pace in which countries are finding a potential vaccine for the virus may also contribute to the virus’s demise.
Scientists in S’pore aim to develop a trial for a coronavirus vaccine in as little as 4 months
Top image via China Daily
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